Apple will make their 10 million iPhones in 2008 sans launch in China. Apple is working with Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel) on a Pacific Rim launch - seven carrier deal in as many countries. 
http://idannyb.wordpress.com/2008/01/23/singtel-to-bring-iphone-to-pacific-rim/

Then there's Japan wherein Apple may partner with NTT DoCoMo. Let's not forget about Italy, Spain and Switzerland (rumored launch in Feb but I say later this summer).

Apple will get around to China, India and Taiwan (after PRC) ... but these nations will come later in 2008 or 2009. Why the delay in China? Apple is well aware of major changes in the works within China's telecommunications industry that will complicate any current "iPhone in China" plans. 


1. TD-SCDMA's (China's home-grown 3G) future is in doubt and building TD-SCDMA support into the next gen iPhone chipset is a risky proposition.

2. China Telecom will likely acquire China Unicom's mobile business (soon) and obtain a 3G license so that Telecom/Unicom can compete aggressively in mobile.

3. Telecom is fighting for the rights to build out W-CDMA 3G ... and Telecom may win. This is important as W-CDMA is an established 3G protocol and the next gen iPhone will absolutely support this standard.

I am optimistic about the China market for Apple. I believe Apple can sell as many as 16 million iPhones in China within 18 months from their official China launch date.
http://idannyb.wordpress.com/2008/02/01/rumor-china’s-td-scdma-3g-may-not-be-long-for-this-world/

Full back story here -
http://idannyb.wordpress.com/2008/01/11/3/

"Press gets spun by China Mobile"
http://idannyb.wordpress.com/2008/01/18/press-gets-spun-by-china-mobile/

Excerpt: In my opinion, Rainie Lei’s (China Mobile spokeswoman) January 14, 2008 statement was a bit too conveniently timed. Ask yourself this basic question - Why has China Mobile seen fit to deliver this “talks ended” statement to the press again? And why go public on the first day of the MacWorld Conference when the world’s media would be focusing on Apple? Apple is not talking publicly about China negotiations and they have never made any proclamation that a “deal is in the works” with China Mobile. So (China Mobile) why go public? And why now? Could it be that China Mobile knows that a “talks ended” statement to the press will put pressure on Apple to rejoin or begin serious discussions? Or are there other “behind the scenes” players who persuaded China Mobile to make statements to the press? With the stakes so high, there are many motivations to stir up Apple FUD (Fear Uncertainty and Doubt) and MacWorld would be the perfect time. Here come the black helicopters carrying FUDsters all the way from Grand Cayman Island, Rockefeller Plaza NYC, Ontario Canada and Espoo Finland.

There is clearly more to the “China discussions” story than Steve Jobs was prepared to share on Tuesday. However, it boggles the mind how so many journalists, bloggers, and pundits can run with China Mobile PR spin with little or no fact-checking. End result … the press gets spun and they got it wrong!